Cerulli Projects Wirehouse Share Drops to 27.7% of Industry AUM by 2027

Cerulli projects wirehouse firms will control just 27.7% of industry AUM by 2027, down from 32% today, as independent channels gain share.

Wirehouse firms will control just 27.7% of total U.S. wealth management assets by 2027, down from approximately 32% today, according to new projections from Cerulli Associates. The forecast, published in the research firm's January 2026 advisor metrics report, quantifies a structural shift that has been reshaping the industry for over a decade.

The decline is not about wirehouses shrinking in absolute terms — total wirehouse assets continue to grow, driven by market appreciation and client inflows. Rather, the independent RIA and independent broker-dealer channels are growing faster, capturing a disproportionate share of net new advisor talent and, with it, new client assets.

Cerulli's data shows that 563 net advisors moved to the independent channel in 2023, the most recent full year for which data is available. Over the same period, wirehouses experienced a net loss of 348 advisors. The migration has accelerated since then, with 2025 seeing several record-breaking breakaway events.

The numbers challenge a narrative that wirehouse leadership has been promoting: that the departures are concentrated among lower-producing advisors whose exit actually improves firm-level economics. While that may be true in some cases, the Cerulli data suggests that the departing advisors are disproportionately mid-career professionals in their peak earning years — precisely the cohort that wirehouses need to maintain their competitive position.

McKinsey & Company made an even bolder prediction, projecting that 2025 could be the year that RIAs surpass wirehouses in total assets under management. Whether that milestone has been reached depends on how the numbers are calculated — RIAs that are affiliated with broker-dealers occupy a gray area — but the directional trend is undeniable.

For advisors, the Cerulli projections have practical implications. The declining wirehouse market share means that the firms are under increasing pressure to retain their best people. Retention packages have become more generous, with wirehouse retention deals now running 140-180% of trailing 12-month revenue over four-year vesting periods. But those deals are reactive — they are offered to advisors who have already signaled intent to leave.

The independent channel's growth is being driven by several structural factors. First, the economics are unambiguously better for the advisor: independent advisors typically retain 70-90% of gross production, compared to 35-50% at wirehouses. Second, technology has eliminated much of the infrastructure advantage that wirehouses once enjoyed. Third, the regulatory environment — particularly Regulation Best Interest — has created a fiduciary expectation that aligns more naturally with the independent model.

But the wirehouse model is far from dead. More than 50% of advisors who leave a wirehouse still move to another wirehouse, according to Cerulli's data. Many advisors value the brand, the infrastructure, the technology, and the institutional support that wirehouses provide. For complex practices that require sophisticated banking, lending, and trust capabilities, the wirehouse platform remains the most comprehensive option available.

The key variable in Cerulli's projection is the pace of breakaway activity over the next two years. If the current rate of wirehouse departures continues — or accelerates, as several industry observers expect — the 27.7% projection could prove conservative. If the wirehouses succeed in slowing the tide through better retention and recruiting, the decline could plateau at a higher level.

What to watch: The 2026 data on net advisor movement will be critical. If wirehouses can stabilize their advisor headcounts and the independent channel's growth rate normalizes, the Cerulli projection may represent the worst case. If the breakaway trend continues to accelerate, the wirehouses could find themselves in a market share position that would have been unthinkable just a decade ago.